Saratoga Meet Declared a Success

Handle and attendance decline at Saratoga but surpass projections and industry trends.

Saratoga Meet Declared a Success

Handle and attendance decline at Saratoga but surpass projections and industry trends.

Saratoga Meet Declared a Success

Handle and attendance decline at Saratoga but surpass projections and industry trends.

Ranking the NFC South linebackers

The linebackers are next in our series of NFC South position rankings and this one took a lot longer and was way more agonizing than our previous installments on safeties and cornerbacks.

It started right at the very top because this division has two linebackers I’d put up against anybody. Everyone knows Jonathan Vilma and Jon Beason are absolutely great. But how the heck do you pick between the two? I don’t want to overdramatize this, but my gut said this was like picking between Larry Bird and Magic Johnson or Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio. You make a call, but there’s a part of you that feels like you’re slighting the other guy.

For all of these rankings, I rely on conversations with coaches, personnel guys and players to make my decision. When it came down to making the call between Beason and Vilma, I reached for the phone and made even more calls. The sources are anonymous, but I called some high-ranking people that I trust most on this one and they also were torn.

I took what they said, processed it and analyzed it and came to the decision that ultimately was mine. Here it is:

1. Jon Beason, Panthers. What it really came down to was this: I viewed Beason and Vilma as equals in virtually every sense based on the past. These rankings are based to some degree on projections for the 2010 season and that’s where I saw a slight edge emerge. Beason is moving from middle linebacker to the weak side and that’s very significant because coordinator Ron Meeks runs a Tampa Two defense. In that scheme, the weakside linebacker takes on huge importance. Think of Derrick Brooks in the Tampa Bay glory days. Beason might not have the supporting cast around him that Brooks did, but he’s going to have a chance to make more tackles and more big plays than he did in the middle.
2. Jonathan Vilma, Saints. You couldn’t ask for a more complete middle linebacker and that’s a very important spot in New Orleans’ scheme. I don’t know that there’s a smarter defensive player in the division. Vilma also is a fantastic leader. Not sure if this works as a consolation prize for Vilma, but I’ll say something I never thought I would. As someone who was born and raised hearing and seeing Penn State called Linebacker U., I’ll admit Beason and Vilma have forced me to give the nod to Miami — at least for the moment.
3. Curtis Lofton, Falcons. This guy makes me worry that I’ll be trying to sort out a three-way race at this time next year. Lofton had a very good rookie year, got better in his second year and everybody I talk to believes he’s ready to step to the elite level this year. Much like Vilma, he’s a middle linebacker that can do it all.
4. Geno Hayes, Buccaneers. This may come as a shock to some Tampa Bay fans who believe Barrett Ruud is the Buccaneers best linebacker. That’s no knock on Ruud and we’ll come to him very soon. But the people around One Buccaneer Place keep singing Hayes’ praises and they’re all saying he’s poised for a breakout season. Hayes is going to be an every-down linebacker. Now that the Bucs are back to playing the Tampa Two scheme, Hayes should be in position to make a lot of big plays.
5. Barrett Ruud, Buccaneers. Ruud does what he’s supposed to do in this system. He makes tackles and he should make more this year because the Bucs did him a favor by putting so much emphasis on adding defensive tackles early in the draft. Ruud’s been wanting a contract extension for some time and it hasn’t happened. If he goes out and makes some big plays and shows he’s the leader of the defense, he might get his wish. But the middle linebacker in the true Tampa Two isn’t the most important guy on the field.
6. Dan Connor, Panthers. Before you go bringing up the Penn State angle, you should know this. Two of my panelists urged me to put Connor ahead of Ruud. I went against them because Ruud has a track record and Connor really doesn’t. The Panthers are throwing him into the middle and we’ll see how he does. But Carolina wouldn’t have moved Beason to the weak side to take the spot of the injured Thomas Davis (he’d be high on this list if he were playing) unless the coaching staff had a lot of faith in Connor.
7. Jonathan Casillas, Saints. This is a bit of a leap, but I saw very good things out of Casillas in training camp and early in the preseason. He moves well and he tackles well and I don’t think the Saints are going to miss Scott Fujita all that much. It also won’t hurt Casillas that he’ll be lining up next to Vilma.
8. Sean Weatherspoon, Falcons. He’s a rookie, but he’s incredibly talented. The Falcons say he can play the strong side or the weak side equally well. My guess is Weatherspoon ends up starting on the strong side and making an immediate contribution.
9. Mike Peterson, Falcons. He’s a question mark as he nears the end of his career. But the Falcons believe Peterson has at least a year in him. Their sudden depth at linebacker might cut into his versatility.
10. Stephen Nicholas, Falcons. He started last year and was average. With Nicholas and Coy Wire, the Falcons think they have quality linebacker depth. If Nicholas ends up starting again, the Falcons wouldn’t be all that upset.
11. James Anderson, Panthers. He’ll get the first shot at the starting job on the strong side. Anderson’s been a quality backup and special-teams player and we’ll find out if he can do more than that.
12. Quincy Black, Buccaneers. The Bucs have been praising Black just as much as Hayes. But there’s one difference. Hayes will stay on the field with Ruud when the Bucs go to their nickel package.
13. Scott Shanle, Saints. A very dependable veteran and he helped the Saints win the Super Bowl last season. But Shanle’s skills as a run defender might be starting to erode.
14. Jamar Williams, Panthers. While Anderson will open as the starter on the strong side, he hasn’t really distanced himself from Williams. If Anderson stumbles at all, the Panthers won’t hesitate to start Williams.

Previous position rankings:

• Cornerbacks
• Safeties

Reflections, projections for Sam Bradford

EARTH CITY, Mo. — This NFL stuff is all new for Sam Bradford.

Looking through the St. Louis Rams‘ roster, however, I noticed a long list of teammates with experience breaking in highly drafted quarterbacks.

They offered insights into their experiences and shared their thoughts on Bradford, the first player chosen in the 2010 NFL draft.

A sampling:

Jacob Bell, Rams guard

Played with: Vince Young and the 2006 Tennessee Titans

Background: Young started 13 games as a rookie. The team finished 8-8 overall. Young completed 51 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 66.7 rating

Bell’s take: “We were 8-8 that year. We relied on just minimizing mistakes. Vince is a different type guy than Bradford, though. Vince has a lot of, I don’t know how you would say it, potential to be this great quarterback. I think Bradford is more developed as far as knowing the game at the quarterback position. But Vince has a lot of things Bradford doesn’t have. Bradford has things that he doesn’t have.

“In the huddle, they are different. Vince would come in and be a little bit more nervous. He couldn’t recite the plays as well. We would have to finish his sentences for him sometimes, whereas Bradford comes in and he’s Joe Cool. He controls the huddle, real serious, real calm, knows the play verbatim. Vince might come in a little looser. He might be joking around, laughing. Two totally different guys.

“At the end of the day, they are both winners who came from winning programs. It’s our job to keep him cool. You can tell when quarterbacks get hit and they get flustered, they are not the same guy. They are not cool, calm and collected. They are not joking around. They are just different people. That is a big thing for young quarterbacks, knowing they are protected, knowing that they don’t have to carry the game, that we have a running back in Steven Jackson and in Tennessee we had Travis Henry, Chris Brown — solid running backs and a good defense.”

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Billy Bajema, Rams tight end

Played with: Alex Smith and the 2005 San Francisco 49ers

Background: Smith started seven games as a rookie. The team finished 4-12 overall. Smith completed 50.9 percent of his passes with one touchdown, 11 interceptions and a 40.8 rating

Bajema’s take: “Sometimes those things are so hard to put a finger on. Alex was smart and threw the ball well. I just think as an offense we struggled and it took us a while to get it going. To put a finger on why, it’s tough to do. The most important thing is, as a team, rallying behind those guys, giving them the support. Every quarterback coming in faces a little bit of a learning curve. Some guys pick it up faster than others and are successful faster than others. Offensively, for the first couple years I was there, we were just kind of getting going.

“[Bradford] is going to be very good. Everybody is real excited about him. He puts it on the money, he is smart, he is a guy that everybody feels like is going to be a really good player. He’s not a guy that is real loud and in people’s faces, but he does a good job taking command when he is in the huddle, establishing who is in charge of the huddle. Everybody respects him and I think that is what is important, to just take command. He does a good job of that.”

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Jason Brown, Rams center

Played with: Joe Flacco and the 2008 Baltimore Ravens

Background: Flacco started all 16 games as a rookie. The team finished 11-5 overall. Flacco completed 60 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and an 80.3 rating

Brown’s take: “When we were in Baltimore with Flacco, they kept the starters in every preseason game in 2008 for three quarters, even the last one, when you expect, ‘Oh, yeah, the starters, you go out there for a series.’ No. We were out there for three quarters to make sure that young quarterback gets the quality reps and the protection he deserves so he can develop. You cannot get enough quality reps because when the season comes, there is no slowing down. That season, opening kickoff, is going to be there before you know it. That is our main focus now, making sure we get Sam some quality reps, same thing we did in Baltimore.

“The main thing I see in Joe, the same thing I see in Sam, it’s just the poise that they bring. Of course, there is the great expectations for these highly drafted young quarterbacks coming out. There is a lot of pressure on them to get in early and compete. But yet I have seen both of them handle it in stride. Sam is a very, very, very mature young man. Very mature. The only thing I had to get on Sam about, and I kind of didn’t want to tell him about it because I knew he would eventually break it, the first time, earlier this summer, when we were getting under center, I knew that Sam was nervous. You couldn’t see it on his face, but I knew he was nervous because when he got under center and put his hand underneath my rear end, his hand was shaking. It was quivering. It was shaking. And of course, I didn’t say anything, but it’s a very awkward feeling for me as well when someone has their hand shaking underneath your rear end. It’s funny, I’m telling you this, but I still haven’t told it to Sam. But of course that was just like some of the first day, welcome to the NFL jitters. He hasn’t done that for quite some time. He’s human. He definitely is human.

“And us as offensive linemen, teammates, friends, the only thing we can do, the best thing we can do is to do our jobs the best that we can to make sure that he is comfortable back in the pocket and allowing him to develop as a young quarterback properly. That is the same pressure we put on us in Baltimore.”

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James Hall, Rams defensive end

Played with: Joey Harrington and the 2002 Detroit Lions

Background: Harrington started 12 games as a rookie. The team finished 3-13 overall. Harrington completed 50.1 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and a 59.9 rating

Hall’s take: “Relative to Harrington, I think Sam probably has better God-given tools than Joey. Joey is a great guy, very professional. Sam is a great guy, very professional. From what I’ve heard about Sam, he has a little bit of a killer instinct. He is a competitor. He has come along real well in training camp. The sky is the limit for him. He has an accurate arm and a strong arm and so far has been making smart decisions. The guy is very confident, especially for a young guy. He seems very poised, doesn’t seem rattled by anything, shaken, and that is always a great sign.”

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Hank Fraley, Rams backup center

Played with: Brady Quinn and the 2007 Cleveland Browns

Background: Quinn started no games as a rookie. The team finished 10-6 overall. Quinn completed 3 of 8 passes for 45 yards and a 56.8 rating

Fraley’s take: “Sam, I know he is doing everything right. He is preparing himself, studying, he is poised in the huddle, he is doing it the right way. That is all you can ask. He is making the right reads. I think he is going to be a very good quarterback for a long time in this league based on what I have seen.

“He just comes out and works hard, he gets in his playbook, he is doing the film study, he gets with A.J. [Feeley], he gets with his coaches. He may have a good day today, but he wants to make sure he proves it tomorrow. He wants to stay consistent and that is how you become a better player. Just working with him, being in there at center with him, looking at blitzes and stuff like that, he wants to understand why they are blitzing that way or why they are lined up like that and what they can do out of it. Those are things he has asked me.”

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Fred Robbins, Rams defensive tackle

Played with: Eli Manning and the 2004 New York Giants

Background: Manning started seven games as a rookie. The team finished 6-10 overall. Manning completed 48.2 percent of his passes with six touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 55.4 rating

Robbins’ take: “Sam is doing some good things, stepping right in, making good throws — things you do not expect from a rookie. He’s got a lot of eyes on him, but he stepped in and did some good things. What surprised me was just how quick he is picking up to the NFL tempo, the NFL speed and everything that way. He’s stepping in and doing a good job and the things he does on the practice field make it seem like he is not a rookie. We have a veteran [in Feeley] and one of the best running backs in the game in Steven Jackson. That allows him to take a little pressure off himself. He has shown [in practice] he really can play. Once he gets that game speed against another team and gets that feel for it, he’s going to do just fine.”

Projecting the Vikings with, without Favre

We’ve tapped into a number of statistical services in recent years, and two of them are offering us interesting takes on the impact of quarterback Brett Favre’s career decision on the Minnesota Vikings. I’m not coming off my take that Favre will eventually return to Minnesota, but these numbers help explain exactly why there was so much hubbub about his plans.

AccuScore, which uses digital profiles of players and coaches to run 10,000 simulated seasons at a time, gives the Vikings a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs if Favre is their quarterback in 2010. Without him, they put the Vikings’ playoffs chances at 53 percent. See the chart below:

Just as interesting, especially from a fantasy standpoint, is AccuScore’s projections for the Vikings’ top three receivers if someone other than Favre is throwing to them this season. Below are their findings:

The biggest statistical reason for the slip is erstwhile starter Tarvaris Jackson’s relatively low career completion percentage of 58.7 AccuScore projects Jackson’s 16-game completion percentage in 2010 at 56.6.

Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders took on a similar task as part of an ESPN Insider column. You’ll need a subscription to read all of what Barnwell wrote, but I can tell you he projects Jackson with a 60.9 completion percentage.

As always, I caution you to remember that these are statistical projections. At the same time, however, they are based on the totality of each player’s career history. Players can always divert and/or improve from their past, but it would be just that: A change of course. So take it for what you will, and carry on.

Camp2010: Players in the pressure cooker

Let’s continue our march to training camp by considering a handful of NFC North players whose teams are counting on strong training camp showings to bridge personnel gaps. You could refer to this as the proverbial “Hot Seat,” but I prefer “Pressure Cooker.” These players aren’t facing either-or scenarios. In most of these cases, the team hasn’t left itself a safety net. They must either jump out of the pot or get boiled. (Or something like that.)

Anyhoo, I made sure to identify at least one player from all four teams, but pardon me in advance for the unequal distribution. No sense forcing anyone into a category for symmetry’s sake.

Chicago Bears

Defensive end Mark Anderson

The task: Demonstrate the kind of 10-sack potential the Bears apparently saw when they handed him a starting job this offseason.

The skinny: The Bears are projecting a repeat performance of Anderson’s rookie season, when he had 12 sacks as a part-time player. He managed 9.5 sacks over the next three seasons combined, illustrating the risk Chicago is taking. Israel Idonije is available for depth, but he is best suited as a backup.

Detroit Lions

Middle linebacker DeAndre Levy

The task: Resolve questions about his aptitude for moving inside after spending all of his college career, and most of his rookie NFL season, as an outside linebacker.

The skinny: Lions coaches have lauded Levy’s versatility and hitting ability for a year, but his assumed competence at middle linebacker is based on projections rather than evidence. While demonstrating athletic ability as a rookie, Levy also tied for the NFC North lead in broken tackles against. In his favor will be a huge upgrade at defensive tackle; Corey Williams and Ndamukong Suh should keep offensive linemen away from him.

Outside linebacker Zack Follett

The task: Replace Ernie Sims as the starting weakside linebacker.

The skinny: A seventh-round draft pick last season, Follett impressed coaches and teammates with his aggressive attitude on special teams. But the Lions are asking him to take a big leap, and to this point they haven’t signed a veteran to give them a safety net if Follett isn’t ready.

Green Bay Packers

Cornerback Tramon Williams

The task: Take the leap from fill-in to full-time starter after sitting out most of the offseason program.

The skinny: Williams has displayed immense potential in starting stints the past two years, but the Packers might need him to take over on a permanent basis this season. Former starter Al Harris is recovering from a serious injury and isn’t expected to be ready for the start of training camp. There’s a big difference between fill-in work and long-term stability.

Minnesota Vikings

Cornerback Lito Sheppard

The task: Recapture enough of his skills to provide short-term relief as a starter while Cedric Griffin recovers from knee surgery.

The skinny: Sheppard lost his starting job with the New York Jets last season, a year after the Philadelphia Eagles gave up on him. He was a good get based on the availability of veteran cornerbacks, and the Vikings would do well if they can get a solid six weeks from him. That will allow them to save Benny Sapp for nickel situations and give rookie Chris Cook more seasoning.

Left guard Steve Hutchinson, center John Sullivan and right guard Anthony Herrera

The task: Demonstrate their health and rebound from a season that left something to be desired from each.

The skinny: Hutchinson and Herrera were slowed by injuries last season, and Sullivan recently revealed he had ankle surgery this offseason. As a whole, the interior of the Vikings’ offensive line needs to spend this summer leveling itself out.

Earlier: NFC North teams ready to implement a counterpunch to the pass-happy 2009 season.

PETCO Park has been a financial success

PETCO Park has been a financial success

Union disputes NBA’s figures, ready for lockout

Insisting that the NBA’s financial projections “don’t hold water,” players’ association executive director Billy Hunter says he’s seen nothing to change his belief that a lockout is possible.

Age rankings for every NFL team

Rookie free agents and other young prospects drag down age stats for NFL teams this time of year.

The relative averages are more relevant than the averages themselves.

The chart shows where NFL teams ranked in average age heading into the weekend. The figures count undrafted free agents and unsigned draft choices. They do not count kickers, punters or snappers because older players at those positions could distort averages in a misleading way.

Having an older roster can be fine and even preferable as long as the team is contending. Being old and bad leads to massive roster overhauls. The St. Louis Rams fit the profile two years ago, leading to a dramatic roster overhaul that continued this offseason.

Quick thoughts on each NFC West team’s current age ranking, based on the rosters I maintain for every team, and not counting specialists:

12. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals subtracted Kurt Warner, but they’re counting on 33-year-olds Clark Haggans, Alan Faneca and Joey Porter. The team also re-signed 36-year-old nose tackle Bryan Robinson.

Arizona does have good young players, though.

13. Seattle Seahawks

This ranking was higher than I would have anticipated given how much coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider have talked about embracing youth.

Seattle re-signed Lawyer Milloy and added two more older players, receiver Sean Morey and guard Ben Hamilton, as free agents.

18. San Francisco 49ers

More than half the 49ers’ starters could be 26 or younger, the highest total in the division (based on tentative projections): Vernon Davis, Parys Haralson, Alex Smith, Manny Lawson, Dashon Goldson, Joe Staley, Patrick Willis, Josh Morgan, Chilo Rachal, Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree and the youngest player on the roster, 20-year-old tackle Anthony Davis.

28. St. Louis Rams

The Rams were generally among the three youngest teams on average last season. They added some seasoning this offseason by signing Fred Robbins, A.J. Feeley, Chris Hovan and Na’il Diggs. Those four players are between 32 and 33 years old.

The Rams remain one of the NFL’s youngest teams after adding 11 draft choices, releasing Marc Bulger and failing to re-sign three unrestricted free agents in their 30s (Randy McMichael, Leonard Little and Clinton Hart).

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